There has been a fair amount of bluster about the Iranian Nuclear deal. One of the points made is that Iran is the largest state sponsor of terror and they will get more power as a result of this deal. I am not sure what metric they are using. I think there is a much more pressing concern to worldwide both conventional and nuclear warfare.
Now I am not discounting that a vicious and nuclear armed Iran is terrifying. That is to say the least. Iran is actively involved or have proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen and probably other states as well. So a nuclear armed “Iran Amalgamated Territory” including all those countries is enough to cause great alarm.
I understand what the anxiety is. It is a clear danger. Also at this point; Iran is trying to catch up to the 1940s. I would much rather they not have nuclear weapons. But is it right to deny Iran the energy benefits that comes with nuclear power? That is the conundrum in my mind. Still don’t think that dilemma make Iran the most dangerous to the United States or the rest of the world.
I believe that Russia is the biggest danger to world peace. Russia is a much larger state sponsor of terror. Russia has been ready and willing to dispatch their forces in multiple areas of operation. They are not just testing the boundaries all the time. They have pushed past the boundaries, numerous times in the last ten years alone. I would say it has been worse since the end of the cold war. Most distressing factor is that they have been nuclear armed for half a century.
The Russians have conducted open armed conflict in the Chechnya region. Multiple times they have gone into that region. Multiple leaders of Russia have confirmed their willingness to bring the Chechens back into the fold. By all means available. They have used increased levels of brutality to make sure that this about 20,000 squared kilometer region stays Russian. It doesn’t stop there.
The Russians took Crimea last year in March of 2014 away from its alliance with Ukraine. They used many methods to make sure that the annexation happened. In the end; Russia pulled this peninsula back away from Ukraine.
Russia is decimating the remaining provinces of Ukraine. Russia has a proxy war with its southern neighbor. They are fighting in armed conflict in the most monstrous ways. Russia is wiping out a good portion of an entire generation of Ukrainians. Ukraine must waste their precious resources in this fight. It is affecting them in ways I am sure I can’t even imagine.
They downed Malaysian Airlines Flight #17. The airline did dare to file a flight plan from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur through a contested area. How dare they?
If you don’t get the sarcasm inherent in my statement here; I will let you know for certain that I am being sarcastic. This is a deliberate act of terrorism by Russia. It was not a targeted attack in a military operation. This was a senseless violence by Russia in an effort to control the skies. The Russian government won’t even own there vicious actions. How is this different from Iran? Well I would have to say it is worse. Much much worse.
On top of those brutal acts; Russia continues to fly unrestricted and unmonitored throughout Europe. Their planes have been causing havoc throughout European airspace. No catastrophes, deaths or accidents yet. Hopefully it will not happen so that safety is maintained. It would be a lot more likely if they would properly file their flight plans and check in with local air controllers. But backed by the Putin government; their reckless activities continue. This is a form of overt terrorism. It has not hurt anyone but the potential for damage remains high.
Putin’s March 2015 statements about the “polite green men” demonstrate his willingness to use force at all times. Why should that only be conventional? We have to plan for all weapons that are available to them.
The Russians already have a nuclear stockpile. This is what so many fear of Iran, just the acquisition. But a deadlier and better armed force is present in the world today. Many in the world have feared Russia. The specter of a proxy war was enough to make many tremble.
Russia is one of the few countries who had and can deploy aircraft carriers and submarines. China has subs and that is a danger to anyone oceangoing vessel. China also has an aircraft carrier but can’t deploy them because their pilots aren’t able to land on them. 13 countries have aircraft carriers. Iran has no aircraft carriers and one submarine.
This is an issue of making war. Iran is a regional threat. Russia is a worldwide threat.
Add on to that; Russia is so irrational. Russia is destroying food from the European Union and others. This is hastening the starvation amongst the Russian people. Perfectly good food is going to waste. That food could have been sent to a number of countries. There are children all over the world who could use that food. The poor. The helpless. But the Russian people would prefer food be wasted. Some partner they make.
Is there that much difference between Vladimir Putin who has been in power for 16 years as either the Prime Minister or President. Ayatollah Khamenei who has been in power for 35 years. Not sure what the measure of destruction is. If it could be quantified; I would try.
Only things I can look at are who is really a foe to Iran. Mostly its neighbors extending into Arabia. This is the reach that Iran has. Iran’s reach is regional at best.
Whereas Russia can reach worldwide. They have put their weapons in faraway places like Cuba. They have supplied various regimes across the world. This is why the AK-47 is the most popular rifle and its rounds are the most made rifle shell in the world. Russia has had a more worldwide reach at its deadliest.
Neither leader is beholden to their populace. So in that equation; I definitely am more worried about the better armed foe. They person that has been in power less time but is more than willing to terrorize not just his neighbors but the entire world. Increasing their “living” space [You know like Lebensraum. Sound familiar?]. Killing foreign populations wherever they can reach them. Russia seems more able and willing to do both worldwide. Also the one who has been steadily interjecting themselves into the fight all over.
The deal effects all the countries involved : France, Germany, the European Union, Iran, the United Kingdom and the United States as well as China and Russia. This deal is important to them all. The stress on resources is a worldwide dilemma. Outside the countries at the table; this deal will have a seismic impact to all nations. No matter whom the winners and losers are. This deal is monumentally important.
The ironic thing is that Russia is hurt financially by this Iranian deal possibly more than any other country. With Iran’s oil saturating the markets; Russian natural resources will be furthered devalued. The negative effect on their economy seems to be sinking the ruble worse than the sanctions emplaced on the country. And Putin just keeps on the same course.
So the most pressing danger is not really the country across the table. It is indeed, one of the countries that sat on our side of the table. The most worrisome to me is Russia.